First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2022-23

First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2022-23

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is releasing in this Press Note the First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Income at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, for the financial year 2022-23.

2. The First Advance Estimates of GDP, introduced in 2016-17 to serve as essential inputs to the Budget exercise, is based on limited data and compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator Method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2021-22 in this case) are extrapolated using relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors.

3. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditure Components of GDP for the years 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

4. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.

5. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹236.65 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4 per cent as compared to 19.5 per cent in 2021-22.

6. The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available for Q1 and Q2 2022-23, (iii) Crop production targets and First Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2022-23, (iv) Production targets for 2022-23 and production estimates of Major Livestock Products for summer season of 2022-23, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for first 7-8 months of the financial year 2022-23. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.

7. The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. The Budget Estimates of tax revenue for 2022-23, as available on Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) websites have been used for estimating taxes on products at current prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto November, 2022 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/State-wise BE provision for 2022-23. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. based on detailed analysis of budget documents of Centre and States for 2022-23 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

8. However, these are early projections for 2022-23. Improved data coverage, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies, data revisions made by source agencies etc. would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. The First Revised Estimates for 2021-22 (benchmark year), due for release on 28.02.2023, may also lead to revision in growth rates reflected in FAE. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures.

9. The Second Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2022-23 and quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2022 (Q3 2022-23), alongwith First Revised, Second Revised and Third Revised Estimates of National Accounts for the years 2021-22, 2020-21 and 2019-20 respectively will be released on 28.02.2023.