NASA Confirms: No Asteroid Collision Threat for July 12, 2038
NASA has confirmed that there is no threat of an asteroid collision with Earth on July 12, 2038, dispelling any rumors or misinformation about a potential impact.
The asteroid 99942 Apophis, which once caused concern among scientists and the public alike, has been closely monitored and studied. Recent data, including precise orbit analysis and radar observations, have ruled out any risk of collision with Earth for at least the next century. Apophis will make a notably close approach to Earth on April 13, 2029, passing closer than some geosynchronous satellites, but it poses no threat of impact during this flyby or in the foreseeable future
Apophis quickly gained notoriety as an asteroid that could pose a serious threat to Earth when astronomers predicted that it would come uncomfortably close in 2029. Thanks to additional observations of Apophis, the risk of an impact in 2029 was later ruled out, as was the potential impact risk posed by another close approach in 2036. Until March 2021, however, a small chance of impact in 2068 still remained.
When Apophis made a distant flyby of Earth around March 5, 2021, astronomers took the opportunity to use powerful radar observations to refine the estimate of its orbit around the Sun with extreme precision, enabling them to confidently rule out any impact risk in 2068 and long after.
“A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” said Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), which is managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “With the support of recent optical observations and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in Apophis’ orbit has collapsed from hundreds of kilometers to just a handful of kilometers when projected to 2029. This greatly improved knowledge of its position in 2029 provides more certainty of its future motion, so we can now remove Apophis from the risk list.”
NASA’s Near-Earth Object Observations Program, known as “Spaceguard,” continues to track and monitor asteroids and comets that could come close to Earth. The program’s ongoing efforts involve using both ground-based and space-based telescopes to ensure that any potential hazards are identified and assessed well in advance.
For more details:
