Samba Times Special

Executive Summary

The Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Rajya Sabha elections held on October 24, 2025, marked the first such polls in the Union Territory since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Four seats were contested, with the National Conference (NC)-led alliance securing three and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning one. People’s Conference (PC) leader Sajad Gani Lone abstained from voting and subsequently alleged a “fixed match” between NC and BJP, citing “mathematical proof” based on vote distribution for NC’s third candidate. This report examines the election context, results, and Lone’s claims, drawing on available data. While party arithmetic supports the outcome, Lone’s allegations of irregularities (e.g., cross-voting and rejected votes) warrant further scrutiny by the Election Commission of India (ECI), though detailed count sheets are not yet public.

Background

J&K’s 90-member Legislative Assembly, elected in September-October 2024, serves as the electoral college for Rajya Sabha seats. Key party strengths:

• NC: 42 seats
• BJP: 29 seats
• Indian National Congress (INC): 6 seats (allied with NC)
• People’s Democratic Party (PDP): 3 seats (supported NC in polls)
• PC: 1 seat (Sajad Lone)
• Others: 9 seats (including 7 Independents, 1 CPI(M) allied with NC, 1 Aam Aadmi Party)

The NC-INC-PDP-CPI(M) alliance controlled approximately 52-56 votes, while BJP held 29-31 (factoring potential Independent support). Two seats were uncontested (individual notifications with single candidates), while the remaining two were clubbed into a single transferable vote (STV) contest for proportional representation. Voting occurred at the J&K Legislative Assembly in Srinagar from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., with 86 MLAs voting in person, one (detained Doda MLA Mehraj Malik) via postal ballot, and Lone abstaining—totaling 87 valid electors out of 88. The STV system uses a Droop quota of floor(87 / 5) + 1 = 18 votes per seat for the four vacancies.

Candidates:

• NC: Mohammad Ramzan Chowdhary, Sajad Kichloo, Shami Oberoi (G.S. Oberoi), Imran Nabi Dar
• BJP: Ali Mohammad Mir, Rakesh Mahajan, Sat Sharma

The uncontested seats (likely the first two) went to NC’s Ramzan and Kichloo without opposition or via formal votes. The clubbed seats (third and fourth) featured a three-way STV contest: Oberoi and Dar (NC) vs. Sharma (BJP).

Election Results

Counting began post-polling, with results declared shortly after 4 p.m.:

• Seat 1: NC’s Mohammad Ramzan Chowdhary elected (uncontested/formal).
• Seat 2: NC’s Sajad Kichloo elected (uncontested/formal).
• Seat 3: NC’s Shami Oberoi elected.
• Seat 4: BJP’s Sat Sharma elected.

NC secured three seats, aligning with pre-poll expectations based on alliance strength (sufficient for three quotas of 18 each, totaling 54 votes). BJP’s single win reflects its solid 29-MLA bloc exceeding the quota for one seat. Detailed first-preference and transfer counts remain unpublished by the ECI as of this report, limiting granular analysis.

Sajad Lone’s Allegations

In a series of X posts immediately after results, Lone labeled the outcome a “fixed match” and “axis of evil” between NC and BJP, crediting his abstention for avoiding complicity. Key claims:

• Extra Votes for NC’s Third Candidate: NC polled 31 votes for Oberoi (candidate 3), exceeding the required 29 (or even 28, given BJP’s focus on seat 4). Lone argues this was unnecessary and suggests it masked collusion.
• Mathematical Proof of Fixing: Implies the over-allocation to Oberoi deprived Dar (NC’s fourth candidate) of votes needed to block Sharma, or facilitated irregularities.
• Irregularities: Questions cross-voting (alliance MLAs supporting BJP), rejected votes, and “hand-in-glove” arrangements.

Lone’s abstention was strategic, as his single vote could not alter the outcome but symbolized protest against perceived pre-poll horse-trading.

Analysis

Expected Outcome vs. Reality

Under STV, BJP’s 29 disciplined votes guaranteed Sharma at least one seat (exceeding the 18-vote quota). 29 NC’s alliance, with 52+ votes, comfortably secured the other three—consistent with 2024 assembly math where NC-ally bloc won 49 seats outright, plus PDP/Independent support. Pre-poll projections foresaw this 3-1 split, with no need for cross-voting.

Validity of “Extra Votes” Claim

Lone’s reference to “31 votes” for Oberoi likely pertains to first-preference allocation in the clubbed STV count for seats 3-4. In a three-candidate, two-seat contest (quota ~29, per adjusted V=87 for subgroup), alliance coordination typically splits first preferences ~28-29 each between Oberoi and Dar to trigger transfers ensuring both reach quota before Sharma. Allocating 31 to Oberoi (vs. planned 29) generates a surplus (2 votes) transferable to Dar, but if misallocated, it could dilute Dar’s tally, allowing Sharma’s 29 first preferences to secure the seat unchallenged.

However:

• This appears tactical rather than collusive—over-allocating ensures Oberoi’s quota amid potential defections.
• No public evidence of cross-voting; BJP’s win aligns with its bloc vote.
• Rejected votes (if any) are routine (e.g., invalid preferences) and unquantified here.

Without ECI’s full tableau (first preferences, transfers, exclusions), Lone’s “proof” remains interpretive. Similar allegations surfaced in past Rajya Sabha polls (e.g., 2022 Maharashtra cross-voting), often unsubstantiated absent probes.

Broader Context

Lone’s PC holds one seat and has historically positioned against both NC and BJP, viewing them as establishment forces. His abstention echoes past boycotts (e.g., 2024 assembly polls). The polls tested alliance cohesion amid Congress-NC tensions over seat-sharing, but INC/PDP backed NC fully. No reports of violence or major disruptions; ECI deemed it “peaceful.”

Conclusion and Recommendations

The results reflect legitimate party arithmetic, with no prima facie evidence of NC “favoring” BJP beyond standard STV dynamics. Lone’s claims highlight potential vote management quirks but lack substantiation without granular data. To address transparency:

• ECI should expedite publication of detailed counts.
• Independent audit for rejected/cross votes if complaints filed.
• Broader reforms for Rajya Sabha polls could include mandatory preference disclosure to curb perceptions of fixing.

This outcome strengthens NC’s parliamentary presence (now 3/4 J&K seats) while affirming BJP’s Jammu base. Further developments may emerge if Lone pursues formal complaints.

Sources: Compiled from ECI-aligned reports, media analyses, and real-time X data as of October 24, 2025.